If you go to page 2 of the Sunday Chronicle business section, we (Tessara Financial Advisors, Inc.) have taken out an advertisement. We have had a lot of positive comments about it and plan to continue it for some time to come. However, we would very much appreciate your comments.
It won't be long until we will have another earnings season to go on. If Europe or China doesn't disintegrate over the next month or so, then investors should have a lot more good news to go on.
However, there's little consistent solid evidence that suggests an economic turnaround at this time. Just an ever-rising stock market, lots of optimism, and carefully selected government statistical data. We do not see substantial and lasting signs of a recovery in the US economy or financial system.
Furthermore, we don't believe there's going to be meaningful job creation, or a turn around in spending. In fact, we are more bearish than we've been in a year. We think you'll start to see in July, August and September a double dip in housing. And we think you will soon see very disturbing news concerning news from the commercial real estate market.
While a near term bounce in the market is likely, the sharp rise in the market's volatility is alarming. We think we are still in a bear market and the March 9, 2009 market lows of 6,450 will be tested, and perhaps even violated.
However, if you are in the right parts of the market, or if you have money, you can make a lot of money. And if you aren't or don't, it could hurt.
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